California Gov. Gavin Newsom is promising a referendum in November to gerrymander five more Democratic House seats on top of the 43 of 52 they already have in the state. Even if it works, his victory may be short-lived. The real problem for Democrats is that progressive policies are driving population flight, which on current trend could cost their states 10 House seats after 2030.
Migration from blue to red states is one of the great stories of the age. It accelerated during the Covid lockdowns as Americans fled states with high taxes and living costs — and disorderly streets and lousy schools. Sayonara, San Francisco. Hello, Salt Lake City.
Start with the raw numbers. Between 2020 and 2024, California (-1,465,116), New York (-966,209) and Illinois (-418,056) lost the population equivalent of Kansas to other states. Texas (747,730) and Florida (872,722) gained the equivalent of West Virginia. Utah, Idaho, Arizona and North Carolina also experienced a rush of newcomers.
Births and foreign migration have somewhat lessened the population losses in Democratic-run states. But their populations are nonetheless aging as young people and families leave. Between 2020 and 2024, California’s population under the age of 18 shrank by 523,000, while New York’s fell by 250,000 and Illinois’s by 186,000.
School closures during the pandemic no doubt contributed to their loss of children, but maybe parents also don’t want their children learning about the varieties of sexual experience in third grade or being taught that America was founded to preserve slavery. Just a thought. Texas gained 199,000 children and Florida 219,000 in the same period.
While slowing immigration under President Trump will dampen population growth in some Republican-led states like Texas and Florida, it will steepen losses in many Democratic states. Notable, though, is that many immigrants who initially come to New York, California and Illinois later leave for other states — for the same reasons native citizens do.
Only about one-third of immigrants who came to California between 2010 and 2023 on net stayed in the state. Immigrants who arrive in Florida and Texas are more likely to settle there. California’s foreign-born population increased by about 600,000 between 2010 and 2023, versus roughly 1.5 million for both Florida and Texas.
What do you know? Immigrants want good schools, affordable housing, safe neighborhoods and cheap energy too. It’s tough for day laborers to make a decent living in Brentwood when they’re paying $5 a gallon to fill up a truck and $2,500 a month for a one-bedroom apartment to house a family of four.
Oh, and good luck trying to start a taqueria or McDonald’s franchise in California or New York with their regulations, taxes, minimum-wage mandates and laws aiding plaintiff attorneys. Democratic governors may hold their states out as “sanctuaries,†but their policies burden immigrants who come to America in search for opportunity.
Despite their policy failures, Democrats have used gerrymanders to entrench their power in statehouses in California, New York, Illinois, Maryland and elsewhere. Population flight cost Democratic states several House seats during the last congressional reapportionment following the 2020 Census, but they lost fewer seats than expected.
That’s partly because Covid lockdowns increased the risk of miscounting college students and people with second homes. Perhaps Floridians with pied-à -terres in Manhattan were counted as New Yorkers. The Census Bureau in 2022 reported that New York’s population was over-counted by 3.4% while there were under-counts in Florida (3.5%) and Texas (1.9%).
Such inaccuracies may have cost Florida and Texas an additional House seat and given Rhode Island, New York and Minnesota one each they shouldn’t have received. Tough for GOP Speaker Mike Johnson. But if population trends continue, Republican states stand to gain at least 10 House seats in the 2030 reapportionment.
The left-leaning Brennan Center estimated in December that Texas and Florida would each gain four House seats while Utah, Idaho, North Carolina and Arizona would each add one. California would lose four, New York two, and Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island one each.
GOP legislatures will draw favorable maps to give their new seats to Republicans, as they did in the last redistricting cycle. And if partisan trends hold, Republican-leaning states will gain 10 electoral votes in the 2032 presidential election, about as many as Arizona currently has. Republicans can thank Mr. Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
Maybe if Democrats didn’t so heavily gerrymander their statehouse districts to prevent political competition, they might not be at risk of losing representation in Washington.
— The Wall Street Journal
